In psychology, the saying goes: "Nothing changes until the pain becomes greater than the fear." Sadly, we all know who will suffer the majority of the pain...
If I remember correctly during the Biden administration many people thought the economy was terrible but when asked how their personal economy was, they were do fine or good.
Don't be surprised by the power of those controlling the message. I suspect the above effect will work in reverse. As in, it's a little harder now but we are on the road to amazing prosperity.
There is a cultish atmosphere around Trump.
When I look back at the past few months, I see many cold showers. But they were not economic. It will be interesting to see if economic cold showers bring a change of attitude.
The most interesting part is how tightly Republicans are staying in unity with Trump. If the day of the economic cold shower does come, and decoupling occurs, it may take the entire movement down as a tidal wave. But it's probably a part of me just hoping for a grand end this nightmare.
The rethugs have a quaint notion (they have had it before in 1930) that imposing a consumer tax (tariffs) if it is adequately large, will improve a recession/depression. Hold on to your hats!
This is a fascinating column. I love your analogy of your dogs, and U.S. citizens who are in denial getting a GREAT BIG COLD wave of water, RIGHT IN THE FACE. Did you compile the list yourself? It's fascinating. I think I need to buy some vitamins and socks!
Thanks! The information on imports from China comes from a comprehensive list of about 1000 types of imports. I picked out the items that were clear consumer goods and where we got more than 50% of our supply from China.
Vital info! I must restock my tee-shirt supply, for sure. Apart from China, tariffs on European and Canadian products will also cost us. POS has repeatedly threatened a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical imports, with 75% manufactured in Switzerland, Ireland and Germany.
I've been trying to think of a way Trump (and we) could avoid an economic cold shower.
The only one I can think of one:
If Trump backs off the tariffs, there won't be an economic cold shower. He has blinked several times already and removed tariffs from many items like cell phones. I suspect this is the most likely. Backing off the tariffs would demonstrate weakness, but Republican control of the message would overcome the portrayal of weakness.
But if tariffs continue, and are effective, the manufacturing results will take 3 - 5 years to begin, which is after he leaves office (hopefully). But during that 3 - 5 years there would be increase in prices and decline in sales for the US and the world. I would expect a stagnant economy at best and recession at worst.
3 -5 years is a pretty long time even for cult members. My sister told me that even when the message is controlled by the cult leader, 15% still don't drink the Kool-aid. Is 15% of MAGA enough to cause a cold shower? Can the MAGA stay together for 3 - 5 years of poor economy?
However, Trump is continually changing the tariffs so I find it hard to believe any business is going to make billion dollar investments without knowing the tariffs will stay. My guess is a stagnant economy with rising prices and no return of manufacturing jobs.
Do any have any ideas on how Trump could avoid the economic cold shower? The above scenarios seem obvious to me and many others. I would think Trump knows this and has alternate plans. I wonder what they are.
Are the tariffs just a smoke screen to the goal of authoritarianism and Christian Nationalism?
He loves watching others play Whack-A-Mole to his whim-of-the-day. I'm sure it feels powerful. I don't think the tariff thing is going to work no matter what he does now, because other countries are fed up with the uncertainty and bullying. They are working out trade between themselves and ways to leave the US out of it. This country is rapidly declining from it's past superpower status. Trump will basically be the king of NOTHING.
Cool summation. I’d like to hope though, that we can move some of the folks in the C and D columns away from Trump for reasons other than, or in addition to, being hit in the face with a wave. Like a sense of decency. A return of logic. A dose of critical thinking. A reminder of the value of the constitution, its ideals never met, but never threatened this much either, in the lifetimes of anyone alive (McCarthyism and Cointelpro were comparable in terms of freedom of speech to what’s happening now, but they’re not the only thing happening now). Like Democrats giving them something to vote FOR, not just against. A friend showed me a LeavingMAGA group, and its testimonies are fascinating. These folks left before the tariffs, etc. I’ll put the link in another column.
When the misery index gets above 10( unemployment combined with inflation), marginal families which are 60 percent living check to check, will be in for it.
low end imports like clothing, shoes, and cheap plastic and electronics are about to get slammed too. plus batteries, light bulbs, the packaging most things even produced in the usa come in...
I am baffled beyond belief that “some”people don’t believe that the crash of the “market” in 1929 won’t come again!!! It’s on its way unless drastic steps are taken to eradicate the actions of Trump, Vance, Johnson, and Russell Vought the author of 2025!
In psychology, the saying goes: "Nothing changes until the pain becomes greater than the fear." Sadly, we all know who will suffer the majority of the pain...
If I remember correctly during the Biden administration many people thought the economy was terrible but when asked how their personal economy was, they were do fine or good.
Don't be surprised by the power of those controlling the message. I suspect the above effect will work in reverse. As in, it's a little harder now but we are on the road to amazing prosperity.
There is a cultish atmosphere around Trump.
When I look back at the past few months, I see many cold showers. But they were not economic. It will be interesting to see if economic cold showers bring a change of attitude.
The most interesting part is how tightly Republicans are staying in unity with Trump. If the day of the economic cold shower does come, and decoupling occurs, it may take the entire movement down as a tidal wave. But it's probably a part of me just hoping for a grand end this nightmare.
The rethugs have a quaint notion (they have had it before in 1930) that imposing a consumer tax (tariffs) if it is adequately large, will improve a recession/depression. Hold on to your hats!
This is a fascinating column. I love your analogy of your dogs, and U.S. citizens who are in denial getting a GREAT BIG COLD wave of water, RIGHT IN THE FACE. Did you compile the list yourself? It's fascinating. I think I need to buy some vitamins and socks!
Thanks! The information on imports from China comes from a comprehensive list of about 1000 types of imports. I picked out the items that were clear consumer goods and where we got more than 50% of our supply from China.
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/what-does-us-import-from-china/746291/
Thanks for sharing this information with me!
Vital info! I must restock my tee-shirt supply, for sure. Apart from China, tariffs on European and Canadian products will also cost us. POS has repeatedly threatened a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical imports, with 75% manufactured in Switzerland, Ireland and Germany.
I've been trying to think of a way Trump (and we) could avoid an economic cold shower.
The only one I can think of one:
If Trump backs off the tariffs, there won't be an economic cold shower. He has blinked several times already and removed tariffs from many items like cell phones. I suspect this is the most likely. Backing off the tariffs would demonstrate weakness, but Republican control of the message would overcome the portrayal of weakness.
But if tariffs continue, and are effective, the manufacturing results will take 3 - 5 years to begin, which is after he leaves office (hopefully). But during that 3 - 5 years there would be increase in prices and decline in sales for the US and the world. I would expect a stagnant economy at best and recession at worst.
3 -5 years is a pretty long time even for cult members. My sister told me that even when the message is controlled by the cult leader, 15% still don't drink the Kool-aid. Is 15% of MAGA enough to cause a cold shower? Can the MAGA stay together for 3 - 5 years of poor economy?
However, Trump is continually changing the tariffs so I find it hard to believe any business is going to make billion dollar investments without knowing the tariffs will stay. My guess is a stagnant economy with rising prices and no return of manufacturing jobs.
Do any have any ideas on how Trump could avoid the economic cold shower? The above scenarios seem obvious to me and many others. I would think Trump knows this and has alternate plans. I wonder what they are.
Are the tariffs just a smoke screen to the goal of authoritarianism and Christian Nationalism?
He loves watching others play Whack-A-Mole to his whim-of-the-day. I'm sure it feels powerful. I don't think the tariff thing is going to work no matter what he does now, because other countries are fed up with the uncertainty and bullying. They are working out trade between themselves and ways to leave the US out of it. This country is rapidly declining from it's past superpower status. Trump will basically be the king of NOTHING.
I think the profiles on this website are fascinating and really important. https://leavingmaga.org/
Cool summation. I’d like to hope though, that we can move some of the folks in the C and D columns away from Trump for reasons other than, or in addition to, being hit in the face with a wave. Like a sense of decency. A return of logic. A dose of critical thinking. A reminder of the value of the constitution, its ideals never met, but never threatened this much either, in the lifetimes of anyone alive (McCarthyism and Cointelpro were comparable in terms of freedom of speech to what’s happening now, but they’re not the only thing happening now). Like Democrats giving them something to vote FOR, not just against. A friend showed me a LeavingMAGA group, and its testimonies are fascinating. These folks left before the tariffs, etc. I’ll put the link in another column.
When the misery index gets above 10( unemployment combined with inflation), marginal families which are 60 percent living check to check, will be in for it.
Thank you Kathleen.
My concern about food supplies is mostly related to packaging materials for packaged foods. Glass, aluminum, etc.?
low end imports like clothing, shoes, and cheap plastic and electronics are about to get slammed too. plus batteries, light bulbs, the packaging most things even produced in the usa come in...
oh and pharmaceuticals too...
Thanks for that list! My wife and I have been talking about stocking up on stuff so a little extra info is awesome.
I am baffled beyond belief that “some”people don’t believe that the crash of the “market” in 1929 won’t come again!!! It’s on its way unless drastic steps are taken to eradicate the actions of Trump, Vance, Johnson, and Russell Vought the author of 2025!