Our Country Needs a Cold Shower
Hoping for Bad, But Not for the Worst
When I took my first dog to the beach he ran eagerly into the water, and I could see he was about to get a wave right in his face. There was no way I could warn him or describe to him what was about to happen. He recoiled in shock but went right back into the water. He continued to love to play in the waves for the rest of his life.
Years later, I took my second dog to the beach for the first time, and she likewise got a wave in the face. She had the opposite reaction, choosing never to get more than her toes wet for the rest of her life. She found all her considerable pleasures on the sandy part of the beach.
At this very moment, our country finds itself facing multiple waves of destruction from Trump 2.0. It is critical for America to get hit in the face with one of these waves—it is critical for the whole country to suffer at the same time from Trump’s actions. Otherwise, too many people will continue to have faith in him.
Of course, a certain percentage of voters will never abandon their faith in Trump. Whatever horrendous thing he does will be rationalized as “part of the plan.” In a poll taken April 21 – 23, after Trump’s tariff announcement and after the stock market crash, 23% still gave Donald Trump a grade of “A” for his first 100 days. (45% gave him F.) However, a big splash of water in the face may well move the 15% who graded him C or D into the F column
Ever since Trump took office, I have been looking for the big splash of water in the face that would cause many of Trump’s fans to have second thoughts about him. Such an event must be truly painful and/or frightening, without being fatal. The Trump Empty Shelves Crisis of 2025 fits the bill almost perfectly.
Note that the Empty Shelves Crisis should not affect food supplies, unless consumers engage in panic buying. Mexican fruit will continue to come in without a tariff and South American coffee will be charged only a 10% tariff. We import the most food from Mexico, Canada, and the EU. The US even produces 68% of the rice that is consumed by Americans. Hardly any of our food supply comes from China.
Our imports are primarily high-end products. So, our food supply is not going to come under threat, unless (as I said) panic buying occurs, and people begin to hoard items that they fear might become unavailable.1 Note that the three retail executives who warned Donald Trump about empty shelves came from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot, not Kroger and Safeway.
The following is a list of consumer goods where more than half of our supply is imported from China. These are the items that will become harder to find and probably more expensive. It also may help you figure out what you may want to buy right now. You might want to buy everybody socks and underwear for Christmas now, so they will be amazed when you actually give them socks on Christmas morning.
Stuff most likely to disappear:
Baby carriages - 96.9%
Artificial flowers - 96.1%
Umbrellas - 96%
Desktop organizers, files and trays - 95.9%
Thermos bottles - 95.7%
Fireworks (buy for July 4 now?) - 95%
Children's picture, drawing, or coloring books - 93%
Combs and hair curlers - 90.5%
Blackboards and whiteboards - 89.6%
Footwear - 83.6%
Blankets and throws - 81.9%
Cutlery - 81.8%
Ceramic housewares - 80.4%
Appliances with electric motors - 80.1%
Clocks - 79.7%
Scissors - 78.9%
Tableware and kitchenware made of plastic - 78.7%
Chalk (teachers beware!) - 77.1%
Toys (bye bye, Christmas) - 75.9%
Mechanical appliances for food and drink prep - 74.5%
Wooden frames - 74.3%
Costume jewelry - 65%
Vitamins - 64.2%
Brooms, mops - 64.1%
Wigs - 63.9%
Knitted or crocheted clothing (includes T shirts and sweatpants) - 63.1%
Tableware/kitchenware of wood - 62.8%
Calendars - 60.9%
Glassware - 59.8%
Binoculars - 59.1%
Fishing rods and tackle - 58.8%
Gloves and mittens - 56%
Hats - 55%
Socks, tights, pantyhose - 54%
Electric shavers - 50%
Believe me, you’re the first on your block to know this!
Right now, I have about a year supply of tea on hand, but I acquired it long before Donald Trump took the oath of office to get my favorite brand on the cheap.
In psychology, the saying goes: "Nothing changes until the pain becomes greater than the fear." Sadly, we all know who will suffer the majority of the pain...
If I remember correctly during the Biden administration many people thought the economy was terrible but when asked how their personal economy was, they were do fine or good.
Don't be surprised by the power of those controlling the message. I suspect the above effect will work in reverse. As in, it's a little harder now but we are on the road to amazing prosperity.
There is a cultish atmosphere around Trump.
When I look back at the past few months, I see many cold showers. But they were not economic. It will be interesting to see if economic cold showers bring a change of attitude.
The most interesting part is how tightly Republicans are staying in unity with Trump. If the day of the economic cold shower does come, and decoupling occurs, it may take the entire movement down as a tidal wave. But it's probably a part of me just hoping for a grand end this nightmare.