Vanished into thin air: Where did 6.5M Democratic voters go?
Explaining the 2024 Democratic defeat
Few people have noticed that the 2024 election was a low enthusiasm election on the Democratic side. Enthusiasm for the Dems sank like a stone in a bottomless black pond—they lost 8% of their 2020 vote, dropping from 81M votes to 74.5M votes. This was a startling contrast to the 24% increase in Democratic votes seen in the 2020 election!
The disaffection/indifference of these 6.5M voters is the obvious reason the Democrats lost the 2024 election. And, by definition, these 6.5M votes were getable votes. The Democrats attracted them in 2020, and there is no reason why they could not have attracted them again in 2024. But they did not.
Tracing voter enthusiasm
I think an analysis of swings in voter enthusiasm over the last five elections reveals much about the outcome of these contests.
Changes in vote totals in elections since 2008
Republicans Democrats
2024 Trump 77M ↑3% Harris 74.5M ↓8%
Note: Biden’s 2020 voters hoped that he would address the country’s problems, but 6.5M of them were disappointed. They were unimpressed by his incremental and long-term approach to addressing the problems of those left behind by the global economy. Even though Biden’s job training, infrastructure, and industrial policies benefited red states more than blue states this fact was ineffectively communicated. The 6.5M were also disappointed by his neglect of border security and his failure to apologize for inflation. The missing Democratic 6.5M had no confidence that Biden “felt their pain;” In contrast the 77M Trump votes were certain that Trump “felt their pain.”
2020 Trump 74M ↑17% Biden 81M ↑24%
Note: In this high turnout election Democrats/Independents reacted against the clearly remembered chaos of the first Trump term. Trump’s fans signaled their robust enthusiasm for his policies with a whopping 17% increase in voter turnout, but they did not match the Democrat/Independent 24% tsunami.
2016 Trump 63M ↑5% Clinton 65M ↑0%
Note: Voters turned tentatively to Trump as a change candidate in contrast to Hilary Clinton as an old-style Democrat and virtual third Obama term. Clinton got exactly the same number of votes as Obama in 2012— presumably inheriting an all but identical set of voters.
2012 Romney 60M ↑0% Obama 65M ↓7%
Note: Obama went out of his way in his first term to avoid the appearance of favoritism toward the Black community, doubtless accounting for much of the reduction in his popular vote total. Romney excited no one as a suspiciously liberal Republican and inept campaigner.
2008 McCain 60M ↓3% Obama 69M ↑17%
Note: In the wake of Bush’s Great Recession and unpopular Iraq war, voters chose Obama as a change agent. Black voters turned out as never before to elect one of their own.
Exploring the defection of 6.5M voters in 2024
There were 6.5M voters who looked to Biden in 2020 to solve the country’s problems and four years later concluded that he had not succeeded. Much of this can be laid to a near total failure to communicate the value of Biden’s slow and incremental economic policies. For a great discussion of this failure, see this post by Sam Stein, “Top operatives say the party needs to break out of its media bubble, not just build a new one.”
Stein points out the astounding fact that Democrats watch Fox News more than any other news source. Yet the only Democrat who advocates for Biden’s economic policies on Fox was Pete Buttigieg. Other members of the Biden administration engaged in a deliberate boycott of this platform.
I can see hope for the Democratic Party only if it unites around a single, simple promise to the American people, one that every American voter is capable of easily understanding: “Guaranteed lifetime job retraining for every American.” This would be so much more effective than opening new factories that might eventually employ a few.
Even more disastrously, the Biden administration proved supremely tone deaf in addressing the emotional state of the country. I addressed this issue over a year ago, and I can only describe my words as prophetic.
I agree with Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin that the American people are fatigued and intensely grumpy. Apart from the 1%, all of us have had a lot to put up with in the last seven years. This fatigue does not make people like Trump more, but it greatly increases the danger that they will stay home.
The voice in our heads is saying, “I have been knocking myself out doing the right thing for years now, and the craziness never seems to die down, and no one seems to care that much about the trouble I've seen. So, I give up. I'm not trying anymore. Maybe people will notice me when I'm suddenly not there. How has voting and voting and voting improved things? You know what? I'm not voting for anyone in 2024."
That's the danger.
Biden's message should NOT be “the economy is great.” His message should be: "I'm sorry you have been struggling for so many years, and it's only starting to get a little bit better now. I'm sorry there's still so much that we have to hang in there about."
Bottom Line: Due to decades of near stagnant incomes and the stress of COVID, a majority of us are putting up with a whopping case of PTSD —that doesn’t go away quickly.
Gee, I sure hope Biden’s messaging will improve before he gets Trump four more years!
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/biden-and-noah-smith-are-wrong-gasp
Final bad news: The Democratic Party is a big tent, but it cannot shelter a majority
The solution is for the Democratic Party to take a vow of laser focus on the economic issues of the bottom 60% of the electorate. They should also give careful attention to other concerns (such as border security) that the public demands.
But this strategy cannot possibly work —the reason is that 25% of the votes and much of the party’s energy grow out of various causes of progressive activists. When these activists realize that the Democratic Party has abandoned their causes or expects them to wait for a generation until they can reemerge, they are likely to quit the party. Climate activists will resuscitate the Green Party. Haters of Israel’s brutality in Gaza will erect a Peace Party. An Antiracist Party will emerge for those motivated by identity politics.
Yet, not even the departure of the progressives will save the Democratic Party. Too many will doubt if the party can truly change its stripes. They will not be sure that a Democratic administration will not push these currently unpopular ideologies to the best of its administrative ability
Thus, the Democratic tent cannot hold both its progressive fringes and the centrist concerns of the average American. The average American will not enter a tent that has been the nursery of progressive concerns. The Democratic tent simply cannot stretch that far.
Yet the 6.5M who once voted Democratic are still out there. What can bring them back?
I have always voted but I’m feeling that despair right now. A country that would allow a convicted felon to run for President again IS a banana republic. And Merrick Garland’s terrible handling of the J6 insurrection was bad too. I no longer have respect for the shining city on the hill.
Presidents don’t pass legislation, Congress does. That Joe Biden was able to persuade lawmakers to pass the legislation that did pass with only a one vote razor thin majority is amazing.
Most people, even educated people, have no idea how the houses of Congress function. The rules of operation for each house often take precedence over the Constitution. Filibuster, anyone?
Sometimes, people are just gullible and stupid, especially if they sit in the toxic marinade of the right wing media’s outright lies. Racism and misogyny played a huge role as well.
Trump did not win big. He won 50.6% to 47.9%. Ronald Reagan won BIG! Mondale only won Minnesota and D.C.
A difference of 2.7% is not a big win. It is still a win. George H.W. Bush won with just under 8% more votes than Dukakis.