So far, all posts on my Substack, “As Time Goes By,” have been written in response to “Noahpinion,” Noah Smith’s excellent blog on economics, rabbits, and the kitchen sink.
Truth is, I have such a deep respect for Noah’s powers of analysis, that when he gets something wrong it hits me like a magnitude 5 earthquake. My problem is that I am a very slow writer, and Noah can commit several egregious errors before I can assemble the words to correct them. My reflections on his ideas regarding an effective China policy will appear as several large posts for “As Time Goes By.” I promise they will be spectacular when they appear.
Along with Noah, I have similar respect for Joe Biden, whom I regard as our best president in decades, certainly the best on foreign policy since George H W Bush. Yet Biden keeps telling us, “The economy is great,” and that message keeps landing on the American psyche like a lead balloon. Noah’s sin is his valiant attempt to convince us to be cheered by Biden’s “economy is great” message.
In this post, I’m trying to explain why the average American just doesn’t see it that way. Indeed, Biden’s message, “the economy is great,” is actually imperiling his reelection prospects.
Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin observed today that the antics of Hunter Biden will never swing a single 2020 Biden voter to vote for Trump in 2024.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/22/biden-iran-hostage-rescue-newsletter/
But Rubin seems oblivious to the real danger imperiling Biden's reelection. This is my comment on her column:
I agree with Rubin that the American people are very fatigued, indeed, intensely grumpy. Except for the one percent, all of us have had a lot to put up with in the last seven years.
Rubin is right —this fatigue does not make people like Trump more. The danger is that it tempts people to stay home.
The voice in our heads is saying, “I have been knocking myself out doing the right thing for years now, and the craziness never seems to die down, and no one seems to care that much about the trouble I've seen. So, I give up. I'm not trying anymore. Maybe people will notice me when I'm suddenly not there. How has voting and voting and voting improved things? You know what? I'm not voting for anyone in 2024."
That's the danger.
Biden's campaign message should NOT be “the economy is great.” His message should be: "I'm sorry you have been struggling for so many years, and it's only starting to get a little bit better now. I'm sorry there's still so much that we have to hang in there about."
Part of what almost all of us are putting up with is a ripping case of PTSD. That doesn't go away quickly.
And Noah Smith is Wrong Too!
Along the same lines, economists, including Noah Smith, keep telling us: “The rate of inflation has gone down dramatically!” leaving the unspoken but obvious implication: “So why aren’t you stupid Americans rejoicing?”
And the Not-So-Stupid Ordinary American replies: “Actually what you’re telling me is that you’re tightening the thumb screw a little slower these days, but no one actually has any plans to loosen the screw. And as for those volatile food and energy prices which affect us 24 /7/365, you conveniently have decided to take no official notice of them at all.” [Food and energy prices are excluded from official measures of the rate of inflation.]
Bottom Line
Gee, I sure hope Biden’s messaging will improve before he gets Trump four more years!
[Food and energy prices are excluded from official measures of the rate of inflation.]
That is not exactly correct. There are several "official measures of inflation."
See for example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation#Measures or bls.gov.
The "most" official measure, that for example adjusts social security and tax brackets, does include food and energy.
Also, I don't find any real evidence in your post other than anecdotes.
Noah, like the rest of the chattering classes, hasn't the slightest clue as to the life led by the lower quartiles of the income and wealth distributions. The data they rely upon is usually a series of averages, and averages are the original sin where methods of central tendency are concerned because they hide all kinds of distributional issues.
I'm getting to the point where their obtuseness is starting to look an awful lot like self-interested hand-waving justification.