Trump's ᗺig ᗺackassward ᗺoondoggle

Our Next Big Challenge

Medicaid recipients petition the government for the redress of grievances outside the congressional hearing on Medicaid cuts (May 13. 2025).

Almost certainly you are aware there is something big happening on Capitol Hill. Until recently, Congress has played a negligible role in the Trump Administration. Instead, Trump has simply issued dozens of executive orders (EOs) while congressional Republicans have quietly nodded or expressed the mildest of concern. But even Trump knows he cannot fabricate a federal budget and levy taxes without Congress passing a bill.

As Gabe Fleisher explained so well, it is extremely difficult for Congress to pass substantive legislation. Because American voters have no great faith in either party, Congress is typically closely divided, making it nearly impossible get a bill through the Senate. The last time either party had a filibuster-proof 60-vote Senate majority was in 2009-2010, when the Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act.

At this point, most legislation is passed by the reconciliation process where only a simple majority is needed to pass a financial package. Because of this, a long list of radical changes are crammed into what Trump calls his “big beautiful bill.” After examining it carefully, I prefer to call it the ᗺig ᗺackassward ᗺoondoggle.

Here are some of the provisions:

Extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts: Trump toyed briefly with the idea of repealing tax cuts for those who made more than $2.5 million per year but backed off quickly (it’s not clear who pressured him). In contrast, the 2024 Democratic platform called for an extension only for those earning less than $400,000 a year.

Democrats question how much the bill will really help working-class Americans. Based on a nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation analysis, they calculate that people making less than $50,000 per year would get $263 in tax relief while those making over $1 million would get more than $81,000.

Cuts to Medicaid: From now on, Medicaid recipients must qualify twice a year. Those who are childless must prove that they are engaged in 80 hours per month of work, volunteer service, or education. Medicaid recipients often have no direct access to computers to report monthly. Also, lower paying jobs often have irregular hours. These changes put a bigger administrative cost and burden on states who do the work of qualifying applicants. When Arkansas enacted a work requirement, they quickly lost 18,000 Medicaid enrollees. On a personal note, I have helped several people do their paperwork to qualify to receive food stamps, and it is a daunting task.

Cuts to Nursing Homes: Nursing homes in 49 states have been using a loophole called the provider tax to increase funding for Medicaid patients. If that loophole is closed, nursing homes will have to reduce the number of Medicaid patients they care for. Thus, the bill doesn’t take Medicaid benefits away from a patient directly but makes openings in nursing homes less available.

Eliminations of subsidies for Obamacare: an estimated 2 million will lose coverage

Increase the SALT deduction for state and local tax payments from $10,000 to $30,000.

Lowering the federal contribution for food stamps

Increase child tax credit from $2000 to $2500 but only for children whose parents are citizens

$140 billion increase for immigration enforcement including 50 billion to complete Trump’s border wall

Tax on college and university endowment income based on the size of the endowment per student, so the wealthiest schools would be hit hardest

Savings account for newborns. Every child would receive a $1000 social savings account. Wealthy parents would be able to contribute up to $5000 (deductable) to this account every year until their child was 31 years old. Thus, poor children would have a head start of $1000 and the children of wealthier parents would have a head start of about $200,000.

No tax on most tips or overtime

Tax deduction for interest payments for American-made cars.

Additional $150 billion for the Defense Department, including $20 billion for Trump's Golden Dome. NOTE: this is $20 billion for a non-existent technology. Patriot missiles do a great job protecting cities against smaller cruise missiles (Kyiv, Tel Aviv). Will we be able to come up with a technology that could protect American cities against supersonic ICBMs? Which cities in our vast country would be protected?

Repeal Biden's student loan forgiveness programs

Repeal all Biden credits incentivizing green energy (wind, solar, nuclear, EVs)

Raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. The Treasury Department will run out of money sometime in August.

The lowest blow of all: the cuts to Medicaid will come into effect in 2029, so Republicans will not have to face voters with these cuts in place.

!!! Republican Food Fight Erupts !!!

Republican Congressmen Debate Their ᗺig ᗺackassward ᗺoondoggle

Republicans are by no means united behind the ᗺᗺᗺ. They have maintained a façade of unanimity and discipline till now, but they have deep conflicts about the ᗺᗺᗺ. These conflicts have been bubbling just under the surface since December 2024, when the so called “Budget Hawks” told Speaker Johnson of their deep dissatisfaction with the growing national debt and expansion of federal spending. Until now, Speaker Johnson has persuaded all factions to go along with Trump’s lead until early summer when the final version of the ᗺᗺᗺ would be negotiated. That would be the proper time to have the Big Fight over the ᗺᗺᗺ.

Well, the Big Fight will break out Friday, when four Budget Hawks, Reps. Chip Roy (TX), Ralph Norman (SC), Andrew Clyde (Ga.) and Josh Brecheen (Okla.) have announced their intention to vote against the ᗺᗺᗺ. This means the bill will be stopped dead in its tracks and cannot be brought to the House floor.

Over the weekend, Speaker Mike Johnson will be negotiating with the various factions among the House Republicans. Here are a few of the most prominent groups:

The Budget Hawks (Freedom Caucus) want $2 trillion in cuts to federal spending as opposed to $1.5 trillion dollars

The SALT faction, a group of Republicans representing Blue States want a higher deduction for SALT (state and local income taxes).¹

About 10 congressional Republicans want no cuts to Medicaid

Three South Florida Republicans of Cuban ancestry want continued protected status for Venezuelans

13 Republicans want to preserve Biden’s green energy credits²

At this point, it seems that the Budget Hawks have the upper hand. They have the votes to keep the bill from getting out of the Budget Committee. Things could go either way:

• Perhaps Trump can twist the arms of Roy and Norman as he has in the past, and they will go along with the bill as written,

• Perhaps Speaker Johnson will allow Roy and Norman to rewrite the bill knowing that it is going to be rewritten again on the floor of Congress.

Always remember that there is not a Republican majority for ANY version of the ᗺᗺᗺ. The people who want to cut spending and the people who want to maintain spending will never find common ground. Accordingly, when the bill reaches the floor of the House, I think Speaker Johnson will find it impossible to pass without rewriting it in a more moderate direction and passing it with the help of Democrats. We citizens should not regard that as a betrayal, because if Democrats are part of the negotiation the bill will be far better for low-income people than if it was passed by Republicans alone.

How Can We Help?

The best thing we can do at this point is encourage Republican conflict. If you live in a district with a Republican representative, call them every day and tell them to fight for their priorities. If I lived in Chip Roy’s district, I’d tell him to fight for more budget cuts. It doesn’t matter what the different Republican factions want as long as they cannot come to an agreement. Alternatively, if you wish, you can encourage them to leave Medicaid untouched without work requirements or tell them millionaires can afford to pay $65,000 more in Income tax. If your call is answered by an answering machine, make sure to leave your address so they know you are a constituent.

Here is a database that includes all the phone numbers of every member of the House of Representatives.

Check Out Strategy From

Here are excerpts from an exciting email I received from INDIVISIBLE detailing their strategy for putting pressure on vulnerable Republicans in nine swing districts.

Here is Trump’s big ugly bill:

$5 trillion in tax breaks that disproportionately go to billionaires -- 50% of the total giveaways go to the wealthiest 5% of Americans

Medicaid work requirements and other healthcare cuts that would lead to 14 million people losing insurance and costs rising for an additional 20 million Americans

Billions in cuts to clean energy programs on top of accelerated permitting for fossil fuel extraction

Defunding Planned Parenthood

$45 billion for immigrant detention centers to facilitate mass deportations

Elimination of the IRS' popular direct file program that allowed people to file their taxes for free and bypass expensive tax software services

The biggest cuts to anti-hunger programs in US history -- literally snatching food away from families in need so that billionaires can afford another yacht

An end to student loan forgiveness

This bill is far from a done deal. GOP leaders will need just about every vote in their caucus to pass this thing -- including the votes of vulnerable Republicans who have already expressed concerns about some of these draconian cuts.

We’ve got a plan to peel off enough Republican members to stop this bill from passing. Billboards. Door knocking. Phonebanks. Events. But to fund it all we’ll need your help.

The aim here is simple: If we draw enough attention and build enough constituent pressure, we can make the cuts so politically toxic that vulnerable Republicans have no other option than to defy Trump or risk losing their seats. We’ve already started putting this plan into action by driving thousands of calls and emails to Congress, but we have a new tactic to crank up the pressure:

We’re putting up billboards in nine target districts demanding that Republicans vote against the disastrous cuts to Medicaid and SNAP and urging constituents to call their offices. The nine Republicans -- Bacon (NE-02), Fitzpatrick (PA-01), Bresnahan (PA-08), Kiggans (VA-02), Wittman (VA-01), Kim (CA-40), Valadao (CA-22), Mackenzie (PA-07), and Van Drew (NJ-02) -- are in some of the most narrowly divided districts in the country, and the last thing they want is their names plastered next to Medicaid and SNAP cuts for all their constituents to see.

These billboards can play a big role in pressuring Republicans and mobilizing constituents in their districts, but we need your help to put them up. All in all, we’re estimating the billboards will cost $53,000, and we’re counting on grassroots donors to help us fund them.

Donate to INDIVISIBLE via ActBlue

But don’t think for a second we’re just gonna put up some billboards and go home. Our billboards will go hand-in-hand with our other grassroots tactics that we’re launching this week. That includes:

☎️ Phonebanks: Republicans won’t defy Trump and their party leaders unless their constituents absolutely force them to. So, starting tomorrow, we’re calling people in key states, letting them know about the proposed cuts and giving them the info they need to contact their Member of Congress.

📲 Peer-to-Peer Texting: In addition to phonebanks, we’re also reaching constituents through texting. Yesterday, we sent out our first batch of texts to 54,000 people in target districts, giving them the tools and scripts they need to contact their Republican reps.

🏘️ Neighbor2Neighbor: We’ve also launched our groundbreaking community organizing tool in eleven districts and four states, allowing folks to knock doors in their communities, on their own time, to turn the political tide against this bill.

💪 Fight Back with Friends: This year, we launched a new relational organizing program using the Empower app to help folks mobilize their friends and family, and give them the tools and resources they need to join the fight.

!!! Stop the ᗺig ᗺackassward ᗺoondoggle !!!

1. They include Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY), Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-NY), Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ), Rep. Young Kim (R-CA).

2. They include Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-VA), Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), Mark Amodei (R-Nev.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), David Valadao (R-Calif.), Gabe Evans (R-Colo.), Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Young Kim (R-Calif.).