Hi Kathleen, I too read that Bulwark letter and agreed. The one difference this time are the many more beastly people who have agendas they want to pursue (2025) and seem prepared and ready to hit the ground running. They seem dangerous and since trump lets them run amok, there will still be a constant battle to stop the creeping meatball of far right religious meatheads. Thanks for your writing, I like your style.
Per a parallel post, the overarching play is always (left hand: create a disturbance over here, and (right hand: rape and pillage over here, while the distraction continues and so many people miss what’s going on cuz they’re fixated on the left hand… like old time carnival hucksters,
Thanks for this Thanksgiving gift. It all makes sense. Trump has little depth. Sadly, there will be collateral damage. Perhaps not as catastrophic as it could be...
In the meantime, I plan to focus on swinging the pendulum back to sanity and inclusion. IMO, that will require a Democratic platform centered on economic justice. People need help.
We will all be better off analyzing Trump less and looking more intently at his team. The scary part this time is that there is a plan for making all those appointments and what course of action they are to follow. This country relies on its institutional knowledge and what is left of its guardrails. One concern is how far Trump will go to expand the power of the President. The other is if suddenly the Congress and the Senate get things done - the things Trump wants done.
We need hope but we also need to be ready to react.
I'm hoping that a lot of the nut jobs will not be confirmed. The ones who are, it will depend on how adept they are at pulling the levers of government. When you want the government to do something, it has to be done in a certain bureaucratic manner. Perhaps they will never master that manner.
But you are absolutely correct; vigilance is essential.
Please join me in giving financial support to government watchdogs like Democracy Docket and CREW.
Yes! CREW is terrific, and Democracy Docket. As far as personal actions go, I like following Field Team 6, also Jessica Craven’s Chop Wood, Carry Water letter where she lists action we can take, and also Postcards To Voters where they target smaller local elections
If employees start leaving due to the confusion and uncertainty, the agency will begin to decline.
For example, when potential layoffs are announced, people start looking for new jobs, even if the layoffs never occur. There are many long standing public employees that probably want to keep their jobs, but ultimately, they need to keep dinner on the table.
So true.. I’ve always thot his biggest trick is create a disturbance over here (to attract attention on this side), while you rape snd pillage over there. And … well there you have it. Confusion all around and the band played on.
Hardly any of Trump's crew have experienced wielding the levers of power in the federal government. There are very precise ways in which changes to federal policy have to be put out. Several times in Trump 1.0, policies were struck down by the courts because they weren't formulated following proper procedure. Trump's minions in 2.0 don't know these procedures either.
You did not discuss international policy. We are already effectively out of NATO, because the other NATO members cannot count on Trump to respond. Congress will never officially take us out of NATO, but if your leader loves Russia and does not unequivocally have your country's back, why would your country have his.
Ukraine will effectively be controlled by Russia although nominally independent.
Israel will take more ground from the Palestinians. Maybe all of the West bank and some of Gaza.
On the national side, you also forgot the intimidation and threats by the DOJ against news media and political rivals. As we have seen with the Washington Post, threats are all that will be needed in many cases. After Jan 20 watch what the DOJ does. If they stay independent and quiet we will have another free and fair election in 4 years. If they start threatening and suing, we probably won't.
Only problem with this theory: Trump is not running the show this time and will not be the one putting things into motion. He is a frontispiece for Vance, Miller, and other evil actors who will be the ones carrying out the plans to demolish democracy.
Hardly any of Trump's crew have experienced wielding the levers of power in the federal government and I am hoping that will slow them down. Also, the 21 states with Democratic governors are already forming a consortium to sue the Trump Administration at every possible occasion.
Let's all hope your prognosis proves right. I think we will be better off if it is. I will be concerned when there's cause for concernment. Until then, I believe it's all very much up in the air with a character as mercurial as Trump.
We will need to be in constant contact with our elected reps via phone and email to encourage them to support or reject various issue that come up for vote. We will need to fill local elected jobs and judiciary with democrats. The MaGA/Republicans played a long game and we need to as well
I don't find this reassuring. It isn't just Trump, for one thing, but Republicans are completely taken over by this same unprincipled power lust. They never had the principles they claimed in the first place. It was always a smoke screen for privileged people wanting undeserved power. Politically, if they were true to this, they had to lie or die. The occasional relatively successful leader didn't push these 'principles' but they didn't have to. The Greenspan/Friedman economic garbage survived independently of electoral victories or losses, for example, until they blew everything up and it still isn't dead. Similarly in the Andrew Mellon years leading up to the Great Depression, which effectively put HItler in power and caused Japan to get desperate and go nuts and bomb our asses.
We'll never know how it might have played out otherwise. I fear this election was our Brexit but, again, no telling how it will play out. Republicans are running things and they have always preferred boom and bust to stagnation because they mostly weather it out when the economy collapses. The Great Recession was more evidence of this so they go on unchecked. We've known at least since the LTCM implosion in 1998 that we were insuring their speculation -- paying for their never-ending high stakes gambling games and musical chairs, in other words. But lots of the 'little people' got seriously hurt and it was the near cause for the upsurge in populism and right wing extremism we live with today, together with Bush's horrific play date with destiny in the Middle East.
We keep playing brinkmanship with real disaster and one of these days we're going to get it. As someone else said in this thread, could be lots of collateral damage. Which are real lives, of the people Republicans don't give a shit about. It has already happened, but not to a catastrophic degree. No, I am not reassured. Of course Trump is only attached to himself, not the rubbish he's been spewing that passes for policy among Republicans now. Hate is not policy. But when he got hundreds of thousands of persons needlessly killed by botching COVID, that was not a picnic. We came out of WWII thinking the good guys won but nobody wins when this stuff happens. And the potential for destruction is greater now. The Bulwark people need to go the full Stuart Stevens.
The problem is, many of the Project 2025 nutjobs ARE doers, not just talkers and they will get bad things done. I do agree with the basic premise you have that #45 is a lazy yapper, but he has said he's just going to turn people loose in these Cabinet positions, and though they are largely incompetant and stupid they are motivated.
Hardly any of Trump's crew have experienced wielding the levers of power in the federal government. There are very precise ways in which changes to federal policy have to be put out. Several times in Trump 1.0, policies were struck down by the courts because they weren't formulated following proper procedure. Trump's minions in 2.0 don't know these procedures either.
I don't underestimate the damage his unfocused bumbling will do. But it will be much less than a talented and focused autocrat would accomplish. The damage will be greatest in foreign affairs, where Trump's power is close to unlimited.
Foreign affairs and domestic tranquility will both suffer grievously, I fear. The return of DJT to power, along with those who enable him, seriously weakens America. All we can do is fight every day peacefully for as long as possible to limit the damage. I think we may succeed, but it will be a fight.
Yes I agree with this. I am more worried about the cable behind him whose has more focus whose interest might counter to that of the country (i.e. the Vance/Musk/Theil axis)
I'd say this has aged pretty well. I'm writing this from April 2025, after Trump has summarily rolled back most of his insane tariffs
The answer to the question is: wrong question, ignoring Trump is not really a thing. What markets do, instead, is price in information and uncertainty. Markets are pricing in Trump's chaos as we speak. Our trading partners are making other plans. The friction cost of doing business with the US has risen exponentially, so alternatives will be pursued.
The important thing that's happening is that Trump is having fun breaking things to make himself feel powerful. His feels are all that matter in the limited world inside his demented mind. Meanwhile, we continue to repeat to ourselves that nothing can be done. So nothing is.
I hope you have a pink parachute for your pink cloud. I’ve never known a person who didn’t need one.
There is plenty of truth out there that needs a soul to house it. It has now become a priority to curate my media to keep my sanity in the next four years. What is happening today will have generational impact. I intend for my legacy to be of value to my grandchildren and yours. The application of wisdom in my deeds. I will need your help to find the truth and to discern my actions my purpose to sustain democracy.
I’m looking forward to your contribution to my personal goals ….. finding Truth and Discernment.
Jonathan V last Write a daily column for the Bulwark, which is an organization of ex Republicans who oppose Trump. Unfortunately, his column is behind a paywall.
Noah Smith wrote a possibly reassuring piece yesterday also. Not ideal outcomes for everyone, but better than our nightmare scenarios. Hoping they are both right.
Trump's pick for the FBI says he will go after the corruption in the media. If he really does this or even threatens it, after being confirmed it will start the authoritarian Trump government. It will mean the Senate is on board with the US government going after the media.
The FBI and the DOJ don't even need to prosecute, they just need to threaten to bring the media and potential rivals into compliance.
The corruption of the mainstream media is the reason it is so helpful that substack can offer a low cost means for the emergence of independent media. Did you know that the new Contrarian media site announced yesterday by Jenn Rubin who just resigned from the Washington Post?
I just looked at your link. It looks like another opinion outlet without primary news gathering. I'm guessing it depends on the primary news gathering of the "corrupt" media.
Read for facts and draw your own conclusions. Mainstream media still gathers and reports facts. They don't just opine on other's information
I was going on the reputation of Jen Rubin. I just read my first article and I was not impressed either. Unless it picks up, I will not be recommending it.
How is the mainstream media corrupt? It is a business. Its goal is to make profit. It needs to produce content that readers and viewers want to accomplish that.
Its a very general and condemning statement that needs support or to be corrected.
Some businesses are just businesses. Other businesses X are assumed to offer both a high standard of ethics coupled with making money. The best example is medical treatment. Ever since Pulitzer in the 19th century, newspapers have presented themselves as a combination of both ethics and money making. Now, I think the emphasis has shifted toward making money. I agree that some outlets of the MSM have not made this shift. But when money becomes Inordinately emphasized, people call that corruption. Similarly, Congress is overly influenced by money and is accordingly corrupt to that extent.
You provide a lot of insight to your readers. Let me suggest you use it to help readers separate fact from opinion when they read MSM.
MSM will shift focus to make money but when they say something is fact it will be fact and if not, it will be exposed and corrected. So while the focus has shifted, MSM is still a good source of facts, for those that know how to separate fact from opinion.
I'd love to see a post from you offering guidelines on how you separate fact from opinion. It's often mixed together so densely it's hard to separate. If there were a set of simple guidelines, it would help readers and the US.
Maybe a conversation among your readers would expose a good set of guidlines.
On second thought, I will put it on my list to write this post you are asking for. I will say how hard it is to sift the truth out of competing "narratives,” but I will end with a list of my trusted sources on various issues, the people who never seemed to get it wrong. Don't expect to see this anytime soon! But when it appears I will give you credit for prodding me.
I will also discuss the problems raised by postmodernism, a movement that believes there is no objective truth, only my perception, your perception, and the perception of any other person. Kellyanne Conway reflected that probably unconsciously when she came up with the notion of “alternative facts.”
The fact that you can still find a lot of good information from MSM is the reason I maintain my subscriptions to the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Economist. I will give some thought to your suggestion, but currently I don't know how I can be helpful, because to separate fact from fiction you either have to do a lot of reading, so you can weigh the relative value of the information they provide, or you can find sources that you trust, who never seemed to get things wrong. Don't see how anyone without significant background can tell fact from fiction— except to say that extreme things, highly emotional claims, are hardly ever true.
Hi Kathleen, I too read that Bulwark letter and agreed. The one difference this time are the many more beastly people who have agendas they want to pursue (2025) and seem prepared and ready to hit the ground running. They seem dangerous and since trump lets them run amok, there will still be a constant battle to stop the creeping meatball of far right religious meatheads. Thanks for your writing, I like your style.
Thanks so much for liking my style! Yes we need to watch.
Per a parallel post, the overarching play is always (left hand: create a disturbance over here, and (right hand: rape and pillage over here, while the distraction continues and so many people miss what’s going on cuz they’re fixated on the left hand… like old time carnival hucksters,
Thanks for this Thanksgiving gift. It all makes sense. Trump has little depth. Sadly, there will be collateral damage. Perhaps not as catastrophic as it could be...
In the meantime, I plan to focus on swinging the pendulum back to sanity and inclusion. IMO, that will require a Democratic platform centered on economic justice. People need help.
Also, I like your style, too!
I am in total favor of the Democratic Party refocusing on economic justice.
We will all be better off analyzing Trump less and looking more intently at his team. The scary part this time is that there is a plan for making all those appointments and what course of action they are to follow. This country relies on its institutional knowledge and what is left of its guardrails. One concern is how far Trump will go to expand the power of the President. The other is if suddenly the Congress and the Senate get things done - the things Trump wants done.
We need hope but we also need to be ready to react.
I'm hoping that a lot of the nut jobs will not be confirmed. The ones who are, it will depend on how adept they are at pulling the levers of government. When you want the government to do something, it has to be done in a certain bureaucratic manner. Perhaps they will never master that manner.
But you are absolutely correct; vigilance is essential.
Please join me in giving financial support to government watchdogs like Democracy Docket and CREW.
Yes! CREW is terrific, and Democracy Docket. As far as personal actions go, I like following Field Team 6, also Jessica Craven’s Chop Wood, Carry Water letter where she lists action we can take, and also Postcards To Voters where they target smaller local elections
They don't have to master the bureaucratic manner, they just have to confuse it enough that the agency begins to destroy itself.
Paralysis does not have to be the same thing as destruction. When a car comes to a halt it is not necessarily falling apart.
If employees start leaving due to the confusion and uncertainty, the agency will begin to decline.
For example, when potential layoffs are announced, people start looking for new jobs, even if the layoffs never occur. There are many long standing public employees that probably want to keep their jobs, but ultimately, they need to keep dinner on the table.
I will certainly look into a contribution to those organizations.
So true.. I’ve always thot his biggest trick is create a disturbance over here (to attract attention on this side), while you rape snd pillage over there. And … well there you have it. Confusion all around and the band played on.
Trump is indeed "The Mouth that Roared" and a blowhard. But it's the people BEHIND him that we have to worry about.
Hardly any of Trump's crew have experienced wielding the levers of power in the federal government. There are very precise ways in which changes to federal policy have to be put out. Several times in Trump 1.0, policies were struck down by the courts because they weren't formulated following proper procedure. Trump's minions in 2.0 don't know these procedures either.
You did not discuss international policy. We are already effectively out of NATO, because the other NATO members cannot count on Trump to respond. Congress will never officially take us out of NATO, but if your leader loves Russia and does not unequivocally have your country's back, why would your country have his.
Ukraine will effectively be controlled by Russia although nominally independent.
Israel will take more ground from the Palestinians. Maybe all of the West bank and some of Gaza.
On the national side, you also forgot the intimidation and threats by the DOJ against news media and political rivals. As we have seen with the Washington Post, threats are all that will be needed in many cases. After Jan 20 watch what the DOJ does. If they stay independent and quiet we will have another free and fair election in 4 years. If they start threatening and suing, we probably won't.
It can happen fast without Fox ever reporting it.
Only problem with this theory: Trump is not running the show this time and will not be the one putting things into motion. He is a frontispiece for Vance, Miller, and other evil actors who will be the ones carrying out the plans to demolish democracy.
Hardly any of Trump's crew have experienced wielding the levers of power in the federal government and I am hoping that will slow them down. Also, the 21 states with Democratic governors are already forming a consortium to sue the Trump Administration at every possible occasion.
True enough. Let’s hope the damage isn’t as extensive as they want it to be.
Let's all hope your prognosis proves right. I think we will be better off if it is. I will be concerned when there's cause for concernment. Until then, I believe it's all very much up in the air with a character as mercurial as Trump.
We will need to be in constant contact with our elected reps via phone and email to encourage them to support or reject various issue that come up for vote. We will need to fill local elected jobs and judiciary with democrats. The MaGA/Republicans played a long game and we need to as well
I don't find this reassuring. It isn't just Trump, for one thing, but Republicans are completely taken over by this same unprincipled power lust. They never had the principles they claimed in the first place. It was always a smoke screen for privileged people wanting undeserved power. Politically, if they were true to this, they had to lie or die. The occasional relatively successful leader didn't push these 'principles' but they didn't have to. The Greenspan/Friedman economic garbage survived independently of electoral victories or losses, for example, until they blew everything up and it still isn't dead. Similarly in the Andrew Mellon years leading up to the Great Depression, which effectively put HItler in power and caused Japan to get desperate and go nuts and bomb our asses.
We'll never know how it might have played out otherwise. I fear this election was our Brexit but, again, no telling how it will play out. Republicans are running things and they have always preferred boom and bust to stagnation because they mostly weather it out when the economy collapses. The Great Recession was more evidence of this so they go on unchecked. We've known at least since the LTCM implosion in 1998 that we were insuring their speculation -- paying for their never-ending high stakes gambling games and musical chairs, in other words. But lots of the 'little people' got seriously hurt and it was the near cause for the upsurge in populism and right wing extremism we live with today, together with Bush's horrific play date with destiny in the Middle East.
We keep playing brinkmanship with real disaster and one of these days we're going to get it. As someone else said in this thread, could be lots of collateral damage. Which are real lives, of the people Republicans don't give a shit about. It has already happened, but not to a catastrophic degree. No, I am not reassured. Of course Trump is only attached to himself, not the rubbish he's been spewing that passes for policy among Republicans now. Hate is not policy. But when he got hundreds of thousands of persons needlessly killed by botching COVID, that was not a picnic. We came out of WWII thinking the good guys won but nobody wins when this stuff happens. And the potential for destruction is greater now. The Bulwark people need to go the full Stuart Stevens.
It was all always a lie.
The problem is, many of the Project 2025 nutjobs ARE doers, not just talkers and they will get bad things done. I do agree with the basic premise you have that #45 is a lazy yapper, but he has said he's just going to turn people loose in these Cabinet positions, and though they are largely incompetant and stupid they are motivated.
Hardly any of Trump's crew have experienced wielding the levers of power in the federal government. There are very precise ways in which changes to federal policy have to be put out. Several times in Trump 1.0, policies were struck down by the courts because they weren't formulated following proper procedure. Trump's minions in 2.0 don't know these procedures either.
Well, sure, maybe.
DJT’s feral focus involves no more than his own survival or self-aggrandizement. But I do not underestimate the damage his unfocused bumbling may do.
I don't underestimate the damage his unfocused bumbling will do. But it will be much less than a talented and focused autocrat would accomplish. The damage will be greatest in foreign affairs, where Trump's power is close to unlimited.
Foreign affairs and domestic tranquility will both suffer grievously, I fear. The return of DJT to power, along with those who enable him, seriously weakens America. All we can do is fight every day peacefully for as long as possible to limit the damage. I think we may succeed, but it will be a fight.
Yes I agree with this. I am more worried about the cable behind him whose has more focus whose interest might counter to that of the country (i.e. the Vance/Musk/Theil axis)
I'd say this has aged pretty well. I'm writing this from April 2025, after Trump has summarily rolled back most of his insane tariffs
The answer to the question is: wrong question, ignoring Trump is not really a thing. What markets do, instead, is price in information and uncertainty. Markets are pricing in Trump's chaos as we speak. Our trading partners are making other plans. The friction cost of doing business with the US has risen exponentially, so alternatives will be pursued.
The important thing that's happening is that Trump is having fun breaking things to make himself feel powerful. His feels are all that matter in the limited world inside his demented mind. Meanwhile, we continue to repeat to ourselves that nothing can be done. So nothing is.
I hope you have a pink parachute for your pink cloud. I’ve never known a person who didn’t need one.
There is plenty of truth out there that needs a soul to house it. It has now become a priority to curate my media to keep my sanity in the next four years. What is happening today will have generational impact. I intend for my legacy to be of value to my grandchildren and yours. The application of wisdom in my deeds. I will need your help to find the truth and to discern my actions my purpose to sustain democracy.
I’m looking forward to your contribution to my personal goals ….. finding Truth and Discernment.
Kathleen, I'm sorry but who is Johnathan V Last? (JVL)...
Jonathan V last Write a daily column for the Bulwark, which is an organization of ex Republicans who oppose Trump. Unfortunately, his column is behind a paywall.
Sorry to take so long in answering your question.
Noah Smith wrote a possibly reassuring piece yesterday also. Not ideal outcomes for everyone, but better than our nightmare scenarios. Hoping they are both right.
https://open.substack.com/pub/noahpinion/p/the-best-case-scenario-for-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1sj3lf
Trump's pick for the FBI says he will go after the corruption in the media. If he really does this or even threatens it, after being confirmed it will start the authoritarian Trump government. It will mean the Senate is on board with the US government going after the media.
The FBI and the DOJ don't even need to prosecute, they just need to threaten to bring the media and potential rivals into compliance.
The corruption of the mainstream media is the reason it is so helpful that substack can offer a low cost means for the emergence of independent media. Did you know that the new Contrarian media site announced yesterday by Jenn Rubin who just resigned from the Washington Post?
https://substack.com/@contrarian/note/c-86078844?utm_source=activity_item
I just looked at your link. It looks like another opinion outlet without primary news gathering. I'm guessing it depends on the primary news gathering of the "corrupt" media.
Read for facts and draw your own conclusions. Mainstream media still gathers and reports facts. They don't just opine on other's information
I was going on the reputation of Jen Rubin. I just read my first article and I was not impressed either. Unless it picks up, I will not be recommending it.
How is the mainstream media corrupt? It is a business. Its goal is to make profit. It needs to produce content that readers and viewers want to accomplish that.
Its a very general and condemning statement that needs support or to be corrected.
Some businesses are just businesses. Other businesses X are assumed to offer both a high standard of ethics coupled with making money. The best example is medical treatment. Ever since Pulitzer in the 19th century, newspapers have presented themselves as a combination of both ethics and money making. Now, I think the emphasis has shifted toward making money. I agree that some outlets of the MSM have not made this shift. But when money becomes Inordinately emphasized, people call that corruption. Similarly, Congress is overly influenced by money and is accordingly corrupt to that extent.
You provide a lot of insight to your readers. Let me suggest you use it to help readers separate fact from opinion when they read MSM.
MSM will shift focus to make money but when they say something is fact it will be fact and if not, it will be exposed and corrected. So while the focus has shifted, MSM is still a good source of facts, for those that know how to separate fact from opinion.
I'd love to see a post from you offering guidelines on how you separate fact from opinion. It's often mixed together so densely it's hard to separate. If there were a set of simple guidelines, it would help readers and the US.
Maybe a conversation among your readers would expose a good set of guidlines.
On second thought, I will put it on my list to write this post you are asking for. I will say how hard it is to sift the truth out of competing "narratives,” but I will end with a list of my trusted sources on various issues, the people who never seemed to get it wrong. Don't expect to see this anytime soon! But when it appears I will give you credit for prodding me.
I will also discuss the problems raised by postmodernism, a movement that believes there is no objective truth, only my perception, your perception, and the perception of any other person. Kellyanne Conway reflected that probably unconsciously when she came up with the notion of “alternative facts.”
The fact that you can still find a lot of good information from MSM is the reason I maintain my subscriptions to the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Economist. I will give some thought to your suggestion, but currently I don't know how I can be helpful, because to separate fact from fiction you either have to do a lot of reading, so you can weigh the relative value of the information they provide, or you can find sources that you trust, who never seemed to get things wrong. Don't see how anyone without significant background can tell fact from fiction— except to say that extreme things, highly emotional claims, are hardly ever true.