Xi Wants Something From Us
And we want things from him
One large waste of time is breathlessly anticipating that breakthroughs will happen at summits. Breakthroughs at summits are about as rare as the birth of triplets (pre-IVF). Summits like the Reagan-Gorbachev summit at Reykjavik, where the principals came close to a breakthrough agreement on nuclear arms reductions come once a decade. And indeed, the Reykjavik Summit changed nothing in the long run.
When world leaders get together to hash out a major shift in policy, they stay together for days or weeks as has happened several times at Camp David.
XI and Biden are getting together for just a few hours, not 10 days. Yet, because we are not robots these short face-to-face meetings are still very important. They are extremely valuable so that both sides can get a sense of each other. You might say, Biden and Xi have met before, but that was last year. People change in ways they do not realize themselves from year to year and that slight change in energy or emotional state can only be picked up in person.
I think that we all realize by now that you can see things face to face that you cannot see pick up through zoom or a phone call. In fact, it is the second and third meeting between world leaders that is more valuable than the first, because two or three data points are far more valuable than one. Good antennae can tell whether anxiety, energy level, and confidence are going up or down.
If XI and Biden sense that they will be able to make any significant shift in the relationship of the US and China going forward, they will agree it to explore it further in phone calls and meetings between the appropriate ministers.
Nevertheless, the media will breathlessly pick over the entrails of this meeting to discern whether the two powers are moving toward détente or intensified hostility. This is an absolute a waste of time.
Both countries have established geopolitical aims that are at odds, and neither has any reason to abandon their position. Xi’s aims are somewhat contradictory: he wants to maintain robust trade relationship with the US while frightening Taiwan into a peaceful surrender to his unwelcome advances. Biden has made US policy abundantly clear: maintain strong trading ties with China while roping off a few segments of the economy from Chinese involvement. The US also continues its policy of strategic ambiguity to deter China from a military invasion of Taiwan. It remains to be seen whether Taiwan has the nerve to maintain its quasi-independence or end the tension by giving into China’s advances.
Prediction: The media will predict that this is a summit of rapprochement, because for the moment XI is stressing Chinese economic recovery over its long-term geopolitical aspirations. This was signaled a few days ago by a Chinese trade negotiator who emphasized China’s desire to workout tensions in the US China trade relationship in a meeting with Janet Yellen.
Prediction: Biden will not be fooled by this for a second—neither should you.