Republicans Start to Fight It Out Over Trump’s Big Ugly Bill
If you are standing on a battlefield, looking down on the hostile forces gathered to attack you and they start hitting each other over the head with swords and clubs and sticks, it is definitely time to rejoice.
The last few days have made it crystal clear that there are two entrenched factions among House Republicans on the subject of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Believe it or not, that is the bill’s official title. I prefer to call it Trump’s ᗺig ᗺackassward ᗺoondoggle (ᗺᗺᗺ).
The Freedom Caucus (at least ten votes) wants to make deeper cuts that will reduce deficit spending by at least $2T; They want to reduce federal spending to the 2019 level, wiping out every single penny added during the Biden years (Medicaid expansion, Green Energy credits, student loan forgiveness). On the other hand, the SALT caucus (5 votes) wants to increase the deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) to as much as $60,000, which will increase the deficit by $700B over 10 years.
This is a fight about big ticket items, not small details. As can be seen in the graph below the biggest cuts to spending come from Green Energy tax credits and Medicaid coverage. The biggest additions to the deficit come from tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires (2017 Trump tax cuts) and the increased SALT deduction.
The Freedom Caucus and the SALT Caucus could not be more determined—and both groups are much more beholden to their constituents than to Donald Trump. The Freedom Caucus represents ultra-right districts, and the well-heeled constituents of SALT districts have told their members to bring back a large SALT deduction or else.
The press is drawing attention to the conflict. From the New York Times (gift link):
Republican Revolt Reflects a Core Party Divide Over Spending and Debt. Whether the ultraconservatives dig in and force big changes to the megabill carrying President Trump’s agenda or capitulate, as they have in the past, will determine the fate of their party’s signature legislation.
See also Axios:
House Republicans have their own gift for President Trump: an absolute mess. Each of the factions Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to unify has plenty of justification for serious trust issues. Even if they win concessions, these lawmakers know the Senate can nuke them right away.
Up to this point, Speaker Mike Johnson has quieted both sides by telling them that the Big Fight over the ᗺᗺᗺ would take place in early summer. Consequently, the House Republican majority has seemed unified and Trump-obedient up to this point, but now the day of battle has arrived and the Big Fight over the ᗺᗺᗺ has begun.
The opening cannon blast took place on Friday, when four members of the Freedom Caucus (Chip Roy (TX), Ralph Norman (SC), Josh Brecheen (OK), and Andrew Clyde (GA) blocked the passage of Trump’s ᗺᗺᗺ out of the House Budget Committee. Negotiations are taking place now so that a second vote can take place on Sunday night at 10:00 PM. However, this cannot produce a bill that will be acceptable to the Republican House majority.
The Senate is another complicating factor: several Republican senators have said they are not satisfied with the House Budget Bill and intend to rewrite it significantly.
How this will turn out in the end is unclear. However, attitudes are clearly more rigid in the House than in the Senate. At least some House districts are absolutely certain what they want from the bill, while on a state level things are more flexible. As I predicted in my last post, I think the final bill will be largely formulated in the Senate and will be less extreme than the one created in the House. I think it’s virtually certain that the Senate version of the bill will be unacceptable to the 10 members of the House Freedom Caucus. Thus, the final version of the ᗺᗺᗺ will never pass the House without some Democratic votes. This blessed state of affairs will allow Democrats to have some impact on tax cuts to the rich and cuts to social spending programs.
My Personal Action Plan
I live in a Democratic House district in bright Red Texas. Therefore, I plan to call both of my senators daily and tell them “No tax cuts for millionaires.”
If you have a Republican senator or representative, you should be calling daily too. If you reach an answering machine, leave your full address so they can be sure that you are one of their constituents.
How Do I Contact Congress?
You can reach the U.S. House of Representatives at (202) 225-3121 and the U.S. Senate at (202) 224-3121. These numbers connect you to the U.S. Capitol Switchboard, where an operator can direct your call to any member of Congress.
For direct access to the office of each Senator and Representative, consult this database. There are buttons at the bottom of the spreadsheet that give access to House and Senate data.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13lYafj0P-6owAJcH-5_xcpcRvMUZI7rkBPW-Ma9e7hw/edit
Strategic Rules of Thumb
Any bill that the Freedom Caucus rejects is a better bill.
The situation is fluid and will remain fluid, so this is the time for us to add our pressure, no matter how small. When something is wobbling, a slight push may get it falling to one side or the other.
Republican senators need to hear the message loud and clear: “No tax cuts for millionaires.” This is the absolute best way to reduce deficits. Or “Keep Green Energy credits.”
In the future, when Republican leaders begin to negotiate with Democrats, it will be time to discuss what Democrats should ask for.
Other ideas on strategy? Please share them in the comments!
Brilliantly written. Better than I could have by far, Kathleen.
Sadly, the Big Bad Budget Bill resembles nothing that is by the people, of the people or for the people. What I want is for the Republicans to sober up and:
1. tell Trump its a big fat no for renewing the 2017 tax cuts
2. Take Medicaid cuts off the table
3. Put a hold on all DOGE cuts until a more thoughtful evaluation can be done
4. Restore NIH, CDC, VA, NOAH, National Park staffing and FEMA cuts completely
5. Do something constructive about immigrants being able to enter this country without waiting 15 years.
6. Remove all that creepy autocratic shot buried in the bill.
Yeah, I know total fantasy... But hey, that's an example of what I want and what I say I want to anyone who will listen. I am certain I have mentioned these things when I have called/written my democratic reps and senators.
Having said all that I fear this bill will pass before people are aware of all the creepy autocratic stuff that Trump will use to become the dictator we never imagined we would have. I would like to be wrong about this--- We cannot give up--- no matter what.